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Will it be Milton's Paradise Lost? On the heels of last week's devastating Hurricane Helene, Tropical Storm Milton formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and headed east. It became a hurricane on October 6th, and rapidly intensified to become a Category 5 storm on October 7. Hurricane Milton's growth was nothing short of astonishing, as it strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just over a day. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.
- Expect coastal flooding. Jon Rizzo, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service Key West, said Hurricane Milton is expected to bring 1-3 feet of coastal flooding above ground level in low-lying areas on the gulf and bayside early Wednesday morning through Thursday.
- Keys residents are encouraged to visit the National Hurricane Center's official forecast site frequently to monitor the progress of the storm. Forecast models are updated several times each day.
- Tampa in the crosshairs. As of 11:00 p.m. Monday, the forecast track for Milton's center is aiming for the Tampa / St. Petersburg area, where storm surge flooding could be over 12 feet. But the path will change, and may be many miles north or south at landfall.
- It's not about the cone. The familiar cone map may be misleading (even without Sharpie annotation). The cone does not indicate the size of the storm; it shows the expected path of the storm's center. Significant impacts, including extreme winds and rainfall, and especially storm surge can occur well outside the storm center. The forecast path, intensity, and timing are updated each time the models are run.
- When. Not if. Linda Cunningham saw our future in Asheville in the wake of Helene.
- Storm impacts last for years. The Washington Post brought us the sobering news from the journal Nature that excess deaths in the wake of tropical storms far exceed the immediate death toll. The Associated Press reported the death toll from Helene is at 227, with many still missing.
- A ROGO lesson and meeting. In the very worthwhile members only Facebook group Reimagining Key West, local artist John Martini wrote:
- A fast moving and intensifying hurricane illustrates the negligence of Monroe County Commissioner's intent to consider adding 8000 new and unsustainable ROGO units to the Keys. They have already turned down one study which indicated evacuation times now are over allowable limits. Let them know that the lives and quality of life of the residents are more important then the desires of developers and corporate interests.
- Meeting 10/16 📅 Date: October 16, 2024🕒 Time: 9:00 AM - 5:00 PM📍 Location: Marathon Government Center - BOCC 🏢Address: 2798 Overseas Hwy, 2nd Floor, Marathon, FL 33050
Vote by mail (VBM) ballots are out. Several Key West Voices readers reported receiving their VBM ballots, which were mailed on September 27th.
- Vote and mail now. Readers are encouraged to vote as early as possible, and to ensure that proper postage is attached (three Forever stamps does the trick).
- Didn't get your ballot? Check your VBM status at the Supervisor of Elections web site, and contact them immediately if there's a problem.
- Early voting begins October 21st at the Supervisor of Elections office on Stock Island and four other locations in Monroe County. Note that you may no longer vote at Southard and Whitehead streets.
- Election day is November 5th. Why wait?
Key West District VI campaign finance. Keys Weekly spotlighted the critical contest to fill term-limited City Commissioner Clayton Lopez's open seat, the only remaining seat to be decided in this year's election (note that the City's web site refers to both district 6 and district VI).
- Marci Rose and Aaron Castillo are in a runoff election to fill the seat. Neither of them reached 50% of the vote to win the seat in the August 20 primary.
- Few voters, slim margin, high turnout. As of 2022, there were 2,549 registered voters in District 6. Lopez was reelected to the seat in 2020 by a margin of only 18 votes out (0.84%) out of 2,126 votes cast.
- Potentially powerful voting bloc at stake. With the bulk of his contributions coming from local and out of state business interests, Castillo could vote for those interests on such critical issues as cruise ships at Mallory Dock, as Key West Voices highlighted recently.
- Big money, big business. Castillo has raised about $88,000, with big donations from business owners, including Ed Swift, owner of Historic Tours of America, hotelier Mark Meisel and the Spottswood family’s businesses. Rose’s donations of nearly $35,000 have come mainly from individuals.
- Data deep dive. Key West Voices dove into the contribution data that is visible to the public at the Supervisor of Elections web site to create the extracts below.
- GOP support. Although the race is non-partisan, the Republican Party of Key West donated $2,500 to Castillo's campaign.
- Two thirds from big donors. Over two-thirds of Castillo's contributions were in increments of $1,000 or greater, for a total of $60,500.
- Breaking the rules? Some individual Castillo donors appear to have violated the $1,000 aggregate giving limit.
Candidate forum. Non-partisan voting advocate Hometown! conducted its final candidate forum ahead of the November election, and posted its video of the event.
- Supervisor of Elections. The SOE race was described by moderator Todd German as “the main event,” due to media and public attention. Republican candidate Sherri Hodies faces Democrat Ron Saunders to replace retiring SOE Joyce Griffin. The forum came about a week after Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed a Republican State Attorney from outside the Keys to investigate a complaint that the Monroe County Republican Executive Committee incorrectly wrote a $20,000 campaign check to Hodies’ campaign.
- Key West District VI candidates Rose and Castillo took different positions on the June firing of Key West City Manager Al Childress.
- Monroe County Commission District 3 candidate Chris Massicotte challenged incumbent Jim Scholl on his votes for the unpopular Publix / CEMEX project in Tavernier, oversight of the scandal involving theft of drugs from the Trauma Star medical evacuation service that has led to indictments and firings, and raising taxes and waste disposal fees for Monroe residents.
Fire rescue chief finally fired. Monroe County Administrator Christine Hurley fired the Monroe County Fire Rescue Division Chief Andrea Thompson.
Hawkwatch. Mark Hedden returned from his travels in the northland to share his experience counting hawks and awkwardly avoiding small talk with strangers.
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| Two Great Egrets - Philip Dodderidge |
Previously in Key West Voices
Hurricane Helene rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to Category 4 hurricane while passing west of the Keys, where the winds, rain, and isolated areas of local flooding brought anxiety, then relief to our neighbors. But utter devastation was visited on the Gulf coast and Big Bend areas of Florida, then on to Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and other states. Asheville, NC, a favorite summer destination for some Key Westers, suffered 'biblical' flooding, landslides, and closed roads. A few friends of KWV in Asheville reported their safety on social media, but the toll of death and destruction is still being tallied. Millions across the southeast are still without fresh water, power, road, and communications access, and as many as 100 persons (so far) are known to have died.
- Photo tour. The Washington Post provided an interactive tour of some of the worst as of Sunday evening.
- Another storm? Yet another storm may be forming in the same region of the Caribbean that gave rise to Helene, and the eastern Atlantic has Tropical Storm Kirk and yet another disturbance. While none of these are an immediate threat, Keys residents are encouraged to monitor the National Hurricane Center web site at least once daily for the entire month of October
- One road out. With increasing frequency of rapidly intensifying storms, the official model for evacuating the Keys on 24 hours' notice is increasingly obsolete, while the Monroe Board of County Commissioners is granting and weighing issuing additional residential building permits later this year. WTF?
- Road elevation. Florida Department of Transportation is elevating three short sections of U.S. 1 in an effort to reduce future flood risk in those low-lying segments.
Monroe County Republicans go to war, with themselves. Keys Weekly extensively covered the feud within the Monroe County Republican Executive Committee (REC) arising from its decision in May to endorse one Republican candidate over another in the primary race for Supervisor of Elections (SOE), along with a $20,000 campaign contribution to candidate Sherri Hodies, that some local Republicans contend was illegal.
- State attorney recused. Key West resident Phyllis May, a registered Republican, filed a complaint on July 26 with Monroe County State Attorney Dennis Ward (also a Republican and a member of the REC). Ward quite properly recused himself from the investigation, and prevailed upon Republican Governor Ron DeSantis to appoint another prosecutor. DeSantis appointed Amira D. Fox in an executive order.
- MAGA election denier. GOP SOE candidate Hodies was previously reported to be a MAGA (Trump supporter) and 2020 election denier. Hodies wrote, "If President Trump can get on his knees and his face and cry to almighty God, you should know he was sent by God to help us save this nation” in March 2020 on her Facebook page.
- Saunders cries foul. Democratic nominee for the SOE Ron Saunders posted on Facebook his reaction to the investigation, as well as responses to misleading campaign messaging from Hodies.
- Unprecedented endorsement. Current Monroe County SOE Joyce Griffin, a Democrat, endorsed Hodies’ Democratic challenger, Ron Saunders, for the position. Griffin is retiring, and recused herself from the canvassing board in the election to replace her.
- The bottom line. Leaders of the Monroe County Republican party want a Trump supporter and election denier to be the Supervisor of Elections here, while other Republicans are challenging that support. Some Republicans have quietly endorsed Democrat Ron Saunders for the SOE job.
Taxes going up. Monroe's Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) approved a $715.7 million spending plan for the 2025 fiscal year, a $48.7 million increase from the previous year.
Fire rescue chief finally fired. Monroe County Administrator Christine Hurley fired the Monroe County Fire Rescue Division Chief Andrea Thompson. Thompson was among four county employees and contractors indicted in the ongoing scandal involving the 2022 theft of narcotics from the Trauma Star medical evacuation service. Former County Administrator Roman Gastesi was among those indicted.
Florida lawmakers seek to politicize school boards. Florida’s lawmakers proposed Amendment 1: Partisan School Board Elections, on the November ballot. They claim the change will simply provide more transparency.
- Opponents are concerned about the impact of increasing partisan politics on local school board decision-making, and worry about disenfranchising the nearly 4 million Florida voters who aren't registered with party affiliation. Passage of this amendment means those voters would be shut out of closed partisan primaries to determine school board candidates.
Homeless protections being dismantled. Among Florida laws taking effect on October 1, one bars local governments from allowing people to sleep at places such as public buildings and in public rights-of-way. Another part of the measure will give legal standing to residents and business owners to file civil lawsuits against local governments that allow sleeping or camping on public property. That part of the law will take effect January 1.
Live on an analog island? Coincident with our near miss by Hurricane Helene, Linda Cunningham contemplated what life would be like in the Keys if we were cut off from the mainland.
